CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-06-27T11:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-06-27T11:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39805/-1
CME Note: Faint CME first seen to the South in SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-06-27T11:00Z, as well as in SOHO LASCO C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the SE in STEREO A COR2. The source of this event is a slow, minor filament liftoff seen beginning at approx. 2025-06-27T04:00Z, centered at approximately S25W15 as seen in SDO AIA and STEREO A EUVI 304, along with field line movement and post eruptive arcades seen in SDO AIA 171, and 193. No clear shock is associated with this arrival but a minor amplification of magnetic field components is observed with Btotal increasing from 3nT at 2025-07-01T10:30Z to 6nT at 2025-07-02T04:06Z. A possible flux rope structure is observed starting at 2025-07-02T21:54Z where a slow rotation of magnetic field components is observed. Around the same time of the flux rope signature, an increase in density is observed, reaching about 20 p/cc. There is not much response in the solar wind speed, with only a minor increase observed from ~435 km/s at 2025-07-01T16:19Z to ~466 km/s at 2025-07-02T17:11Z. Additionally, no increases in temperature are observed. This signature may be associated with the glancing blow arrival of CME: 2025-06-27T11:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-07-01T10:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-07-01T06:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 88.55 hour(s)
Difference: 4.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2025-06-27T17:57Z
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